> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://eterna.gitbook.io/if.market/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://eterna.gitbook.io/if.market/if.market/introduction-to-if.market.md). # Introduction to if.market > if.market lets you trade the price of an asset inside a specific future outcome. What is oil worth if the US strikes Iran? What is BTC worth if the Fed cuts? What is a stock worth if the product ships? > > Website: [if.market](https://if.market/) · X/Twitter: [@ifmarkets](https://x.com/ifmarkets) · Discord: Prediction markets tell you the probability of an event. if.market also gives you the price impact. Every event on the exchange carries two market types side by side: * An **impact market** per asset (BTC, ETH, SOL, oil, and others), where you go long or short the asset inside the Yes world or the No world. * A **prediction market**, a shared Yes/No book where tokens pay $1 on the winning outcome. ## Key benefits * **Trade scenarios, not just odds.** Take long or short exposure to an asset inside a named outcome. You profit from the asset's move in that world, without exposure to every other reason the asset moves. * **See the impact, priced live.** Every market card shows the market's estimate of each asset's move in each outcome, continuously and publicly, before you trade. * **Nobody is wiped out by the event.** If your outcome does not happen, your open position returns its committed margin. Being wrong about the event costs you nothing beyond the trade itself. * **Exit any time.** Close a position early and your profit or loss converts into prediction tokens that you can sell immediately at the market's live odds, or hold to resolution. * **Simple collateral.** Deposit cash, trade with cash. Margin equals entry price times quantity, isolated per position. There is no token management and no asset custody. * **Transparent rules.** Every market publishes its resolution criteria, sources, and edge cases on the market page before trading opens. ## The idea in one picture ``` Event: "Will the US strike Iran by Feb 28?" Asset: Brent oil Spot: $79 YES world (strike) NO world (no strike) oil-if-YES = $120 oil-if-NO = $72 Spot = P(YES) x 120 + P(NO) x 72 = 0.15 x 120 + 0.85 x 72 = $79 ``` You trade inside the world you have a view on. If you think oil in the strike scenario is underpriced at $120, you buy it there. Your P\&L comes from oil's value in that world only. ## A trade in 60 seconds {% stepper %} {% step %} ## Deposit Your cash balance funds every trade. {% endstep %} {% step %} ## Pick an event Pick an event on the Markets page and open it. {% endstep %} {% step %} ## Choose your market Choose your market: prediction (trade the odds) or impact (trade an asset inside an outcome). {% endstep %} {% step %} ## Place the trade The ticket shows order value, fees, margin, and what happens at settlement before you confirm. {% endstep %} {% step %} ## Hold or exit Close early and your P\&L converts to prediction tokens, or hold to resolution: the winning world settles at the asset's spot price, the losing world returns its margin. {% endstep %} {% endstepper %} Full walkthrough: [Your First Trade](/if.market/if.market/using-the-exchange/your-first-trade.md). ## Watch the explainer {% embed url="" %} A short video walkthrough of if.market: impact markets, prediction markets, and how a trade settles. {% endembed %} ## Where to go next | If you are | Start with | | ----------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | New to the product | [Getting Started](/if.market/if.market/getting-started/getting-started.md), then [Core Concepts](/if.market/if.market/getting-started/core-concepts.md) and [Your First Trade](/if.market/if.market/using-the-exchange/your-first-trade.md) | | Here to trade | [Browsing Markets](/if.market/if.market/using-the-exchange/browsing-markets.md), [Trading Impact Markets](/if.market/if.market/using-the-exchange/trading-impact-markets.md), [Strategy Overview](/if.market/if.market/strategies/strategy-overview.md) | | Joining the beta | [Beta Trial and Competitions](/if.market/if.market/beta-program/beta-trial-and-competitions.md) | | Studying the mechanics | [Market Structure](/if.market/if.market/market-mechanics/market-structure.md), [Settlement and Resolution](/if.market/if.market/market-mechanics/settlement-and-resolution.md), [Collateral and Margin](/if.market/if.market/market-mechanics/collateral-and-margin.md) | | A market maker or institution | [Market Making](/if.market/if.market/strategies/market-making.md), [Institutional Guide](/if.market/if.market/for-institutions/institutional-guide.md) | ## How it compares * **Prediction markets** trade event truth: a token worth $1 or $0. if.market also trades the asset price inside each outcome. An insider who knows the outcome still does not know the conditional price. * **Options** pay relative to a strike, cost a premium, and decay with time. An impact position is linear asset exposure scoped to a named event, with no strike and no time decay. * **Perpetuals and futures** expose you to every reason an asset moves. An impact position is exposed only to the asset's move in the world you selected. Full comparison: [How if.market Compares](/if.market/if.market/getting-started/how-if.market-compares.md). *** *if.market ·* [*if.market*](https://if.market/) *·* [*@ifmarkets*](https://x.com/ifmarkets) *· These docs describe a product in active development and are not investment, legal, or tax advice.*